Party Poker World Grand Prix Night 1

Posted: 06.10.13 in Tournament Analysis Blog category

The World Grand Prix starts tonight, we take a look at tonight's action !

The warm up event of the two Players Championships tournaments are done and dusted and the World Grand Prix starts tonight! Adrian Lewis beat “local hero” Brendan Dolan in the first Players Championship event on Saturday and Barney beat Peter Wright in the Sunday event. This was a great result for Barney. Earlier in the week he had been complaining that he had not been well and some thought that maybe he was getting his excuses in early! Time will tell if this is the start of another Barney resurgence!

Tonight’s matches are:

Monday October 7 (7pm)
First Round
Ronnie Baxter (Evens) v Colin Lloyd (10/11)
Wes Newton (Evens)  v Peter Wright (10/11)
Paul Nicholson (6/4) v Robert Thornton (8/13)
Simon Whitlock (1/4) v Michael Mansell (4/1)
James Wade (4/9) v Steve Beaton (11/5)
Phil Taylor (1/4) v Jamie Caven (7/2)
Gary Anderson (4/6) v Jelle Klaasen (11/8)
Connie Finnan (11/4) v Terry Jenkins (4/11)

The Joy of Sets

Not only is there the double start feature of this tournament to contend with but the Grand Prix matches are also decided over sets. It is the best of five legs to a set. The first round games are a quick fire best of three sets, the perfect recipe for some surprises!

The Stats

The double start format also skews some of the statistics. For example the three dart averages take a bit of a hammering as the double start (Maximum score 40 instead of 60) as well as the inevitable missed doubles at the start take their toll. Averages in the 80’s are more likely in this event rather than the 90’s and 100’s we have got used to.

We also need to keep the double start  in mind for our 180’s bets too. Obviously it is impossible to hit a 180 with the first 3 darts (sometimes many more darts if the starting double remains elusive) it follows then that we will see slightly fewer than normal. We will have to ensure we don’t fall in to the trap of thinking the bookies are being generous with their estimates of how many a player is going to hit!

Tips

Steve Beaton at 11/5 looks interesting. He is up against James Wade, who on his day can of course beat anyone. However, with this unpredictable format, an unpredictable James Wade and a in form Beaton makes the 11/5 on offer from Bet365 seem like a bit of value!

One other bet I like is on offer from just SkyBet and Boyles and is one I could imagine setting as one of our competition questions; how many seeds will go out in the first round?

None – 14/1, one or two, 6/5, three or four 21/20 and 5 or more 11/1

There are eight seeds in total: Phil Taylor (seed 1), Michael van Gerwen (2), Adrian Lewis (3). Simon Whitlock (4), James Wade (5), Andy Hamilton (6), Dave Chisnall (7), Wes Newton (8), 

Hmm. Tricky one, maybe we will keep our money in our pocket and run it as a competition after all!

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