Analyse This !

Posted: 05.12.10 in Tournament Analysis Blog category

We go public and take stock of the World Cup and decide the partnership of Barney and Co have a limited chance with our GP (Great Pair) Analysis...

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The GP Analysis (Great Pair)

Would anyone argue that the best teams have qualified for the semi-finals? Probably, but that`s the beauty of sport. On the face of it, however, Holland, Wales,Australia and Spain have shown great team bonding in different ways. But what difference will this team `edge` have on who lifts the inaugural World Cup? We take a quick look at the raw data and see who should win if the statistics are to be believed and then how the picture changes when we mix in a dollop or two of team spirit.

Rating System

We have just used the results for yesterday. Each team gets one point for each singles and doubles match they won. Their 3 dart average over all three games is then divided by 10 to give a more manageable total for that statistic.

According to our statistics, Holland 14.9 should beat Spain 13.6 with something to spare and Australia 15.9 should cruise past Wales 13.5.

Team Spirit Rating

However, if we factor in our totally subjective team spirit rating the picture changes. Team Wales and Team Holland lose marks as their `number two` players are statistically weaker than Team Australia and Team Spain. Neither Co nor Bates won a match yesterday, thus upsetting the balance of the side. Holland drop further points for Barney reminding Co of his `contribution` during their post match interview. The Australian team have bonded and so have the Welsh albeit in a more under-stated way. Spain are given a AAA rating for their team bonding, self-talk, ability to react as a partnership under pressure  and for generally being a great example of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts. Our weighting for this area is:

A + 5%

AA + 10%

AAA +15%

This still leaves Australia (17.49) looking the most likely to beat the Welsh (14.86), perhaps the fact that Nicholson appears to be a greater asset on the Team Australia`s balance sheet than Bates may just get them to the final. The Holland (15.65) V Spain (15.64) game is too close to call when the team ethos is factored in. The key has to be Barney, if his head starts wobbling and Spain can gel again we could be in for a brilliant semi final.

The Final

We have added Holland`s four points and Wales two points and the final table is below. The stats suggest Holland should win, but we haven`t sprinkled any `champagne` into the mix so don`t put your Xmas bonus on it!