Would You Buy or Sell Van Gerwen’s World Championship Odds Right Now?

Posted: 04.11.20 in Darts Performance Centre Blog category

As most darts fans are acutely aware, the biggest story in the sport right now is that Michael Van Gerwen has gone off the boil lately. He hasn’t been awful, of course, but he just hasn’t lived up to his own excellent standards in 2020. Perhaps it’s the disruption in the calendar, or the lack of fans in the arenas, but MVG just isn’t right.

The bookmakers have, of course, noticed this downturn in form, and they have acted to cut his PDC World Championship odds quite dramatically. MVG was 5/4 for the 2019/20 World Championship, but 888 Darts Betting have put him at 11/4 for the 2020/21 event. Again, this is dramatic in the sense of MVG being an outlier of the game. But if you want to look at it in terms of implied probability, the shift has gone from a 44.4% chance of success to a 26.7% chance.

But we wanted to ask whether you would buy or sell MVG’s odds as they stand today. If you aren’t familiar with betting parlance, what we are basically asking if MVG will improve enough over the next couple of months to see the odds shorten again, or whether his poor form will continue and, thus, his odds rise further. Below we make that case:

Buying MVG’s Odds Now

As we said above, MVG is an outlier in the sport. A bit like the All Blacks in rugby, he is deservedly favourite for every competition he enters. As we mentioned above, he has not been that bad. MVG has said himself in recent tweets that he is feeling better about his game, and he was fairly impressive en route to the final of the European Darts Grand Prix at the weekend. Yes, he lost out Jose de Sousa, but he beat players like Nathan Aspinall and Mensur Suljovic along the way.

The point we are making is that MVG is doing what all great sportspeople do, grinding out results until he gets his mojo back. This was a disruptive season for all players, and many will believe that the Dutchman will get that spark back the more he plays. There are numerous events between now and the 18th December when the World Championship gets underway – ample time for MVG to get back in the groove. His odds are exceptionally high (for him), and you’ll probably see them drop anyhow as the money comes in for the tournament.

Selling MVG’s Odds Now

We should make the point that not only has MVG dipped in form this year, but players around him in the top 10 have improved of late. Gerwyn Price, Rob Cross, Peter Wright, Nathan Aspinall and a host of others have been putting in much better performances than MVG this season, and there hasn’t been enough from the Dutchman for us to think any differently. Yes, some of his defeats – Simon Whitlock in the World Grand Prix, De Sousa at the weekend – saw players in the form of their lives, but his own game simply hasn’t been good enough.